Mikey Madison and Mark Eydelshteyn in “Anora,” which, Stephen Whitty predicts, will be named Best Film at this year’s Oscars.
The 97th annual Oscar show takes place on March 2, at The Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, and the usual questions are being asked. Who will win? Who should win?
Along with — yes, I hear you back there — “Who cares?”
Well, you should — if you are a movie lover.
Sure, the ceremony can be an orgy of sickening self-congratulation, but an Oscar win doesn’t just mean a big ego bump for the winners; it means increased artistic leverage. Take home a prize for shepherding a risky project to the screen, and it gets a little easier to make the next one. Put “Academy Award-winning actor” next to your name and maybe, instead of just quickly cashing in, you can use that newfound clout to get some other terrific movies made.
Oscars mean opportunities. And anything that could lead to something beyond franchise sequels and factory-made Marvel movies means a real opportunity for audiences.
So who is going to win? Who knows? But we can make some semi-educated guesses.
I always start by looking at the big groups that have already given out awards. There is my own group, the New York Film Critics Circle, and our West Coast colleagues, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association. None of us get Oscar votes — unless we’re also filmmakers, and in The Academy — but our prizes can alert industry voters to films they should take seriously. (The tricky thing here: LAFCA has two gender-neutral acting categories, and gives two awards in each.)
Then I look at The Golden Globes, a silly but well-publicized spectacle, and at the far more serious British Academy of Film and Television Arts. The Globes can confuse things, as several of their categories give separate awards for dramas and for musicals/comedies (often defining those genres pretty arbitrarily). BAFTA’s choices are more relevant to the race, as some members are also Oscar voters, but when it comes to Best Picture, they also give out two prizes — one for Best Film, one for Best British Film. So they can cloud the waters, too.
Then there are the more limited guild awards, chosen by people who often also vote in The Oscars. The Producers Guild of America only has a single prize for Best Theatrical Film; similarly, the Directors Guild of America has one main feature-film prize (although it also acknowledges promising debuts). The Screen Actors Guild, understandably, celebrates only actors — take that, you bossy directors! — but their prize for Best Ensemble carries the weight of a Best Picture honor. (Increasing SAG’s importance in Oscar predictions: Actors are The Academy’s largest bloc of voters.)
And then, after all that gets toted up, there are more intangible considerations.
Karla Sofía Gascón in “Emilia Pérez”
Is the nominee a Hollywood fixture, overdue for some recognition? Are they a newcomer who just had an amazing breakthrough? If they are a performer, did they play a real-life person, die dramatically onscreen, or dare to be unattractive? If they are a director, did they tackle a film no one else would, make a stirring social statement, or pull together an immensely daunting project? And, perhaps most important: Have we always liked them? Or have they done something recently to tick us off, like the bigoted tweets that recently surfaced from Karla Sofía Gascón of “Emilia Pérez”?
What it really comes down to, in the end, is simple: As a voter, who do I want to see up on that stage, holding that golden statue? Who can’t I wait to applaud?
This year is a particularly hard one to predict, with some of the closest races in years and a few traditions in tatters. In another era, for example, popular films like the adult drama “Conclave,” the biopic “A Complete Unknown” and the splashy musical “Wicked” would be odds-on favorites. But voting membership has grown more diverse, and less influenced by ideas of what an Oscar winner should look like. The foreign-language “Emilia Pérez” not only led in total nominations, but saw a trans performer enter the Best Actress race. Other lauded movies this year include a romantic comedy about a sex worker, a gory feminist horror film, and a three-hour-plus epic about post-Holocaust trauma. And all of them are not long shots, but serious contenders.
Kieran Culkin, left, with Jesse Eisenberg in “A Real Pain.”
So back to those original questions. Who will win? Who should? Here is a look at the major races, with some predictions.
Best Supporting Actor: Yura Borisov, “Anora”; Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”; Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”; Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”; Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
The Race So Far: Let’s get the boring category out of the way first. In a move to be gender neutral, LAFCA gives two supporting performance awards; this year both went to men, Culkin for “A Real Pain” and Borisov for “Anora.” But that is the only prize this season that Borisov won, and the only time any actor besides Culkin was even mentioned; every other group gave the “A Real Pain” performer their Supporting Actor award for what has been a run-the-tables season. It is highly unlikely the Oscars are going to stop his streak.
Who Will Win: Culkin
Who Should Win: Strong
Zoe Saldana in “Emilia Perez.”
Best Supporting Actress: Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown,”; Ariana Grande, “Wicked”; Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”; Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”; Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
The Race So Far: The NYFCC gave their prize to the wonderful Carol Kane, for “Between the Temples,” but The Oscars ignored that film; LAFCA doesn’t count in this race, as they gave both their supporting performance awards to men. Of the remaining groups, every one singled out Saldaña, for her seize-the-stage musical turn in “Emilia Pérez.” Also, after Gascón’s behavior pretty much threw a wrench into that movie’s awards campaign, this category may be the best chance for voters to ensure it wins at least one of its 13 nominations.
Who Will Win: Saldaña
Who Should Win: Saldaña
Best Actor: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”; Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”; Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”; Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”; Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
The Race So Far: This is where things get interesting. There have already been a few surprises in this race: The Globes’ nod to Stan but for his other film (“A Different Man”), a sense of just how much the usually reserved Fiennes wants a win. For the longest time, Brody seemed like the safest bet; he won best actor from NYFCC and BAFTA and Best Dramatic Performance from The Globes (who gave their Best Comedic or Musical Performance to Stan). But then Chalamet won at SAG — and Oscar voters really love the stars of musical biopics. It’s close.
Who Will Win: Brody
Who Should Win: Brody
Demi Moore in “The Substance.”
Best Actress: Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”; Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”; Mikey Madison, “Anora”; Demi Moore, “The Substance”; Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
The Race So Far: The NYFCC, rightfully, adored Marianne Jean-Baptiste in “Hard Truths,” and the LAFCA split one of their lead prizes to honor her, too, but sadly, Academy voters were unmoved. LAFCA gave its other big prize to Madison, though, who also won at BAFTA. The split-decision Globes gave their dramatic prize to Torres and their comedy/musical one to Moore (that was a comedy?); Moore also won at SAG. So, a coin toss: Will voters acknowledge a newcomer’s bravura performance? Or salute a veteran actress and longtime glamour girl for going gross?
Who Will Win: Moore
Who Should Win: Madison
Best Director: Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”; Sean Baker, “Anora”; Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”; Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”; James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
The Race So Far: RaMell Ross won for “Nickel Boys” at NYFCC (and got a special, separate DGA prize for First Theatrical Film), but his work was probably too slow and mannered for the Academy; LAFCA honored Mohammad Rasoulof for “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” but he wasn’t nominated either. The only filmmakers here to have already received major awards are Baker, from The DGA, and Corbet, who was lauded by The Globes and BAFTA. And if, as a filmmaker once told me, the directing prize usually goes to the person behind the most ambitious, “How’d they pull that off?” project, Corbet is clearly out in front for making a three-hour-plus epic art film (and for only $10 million).
Who Will Win: Corbet
Who Should Win: Corbet
Adrien Brody, right, with Alessandro Nivola in “The Brutalist.”
Best Picture: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Pérez,” “I’m Still Here,” “Nickel Boys,” “The Substance,” “Wicked”
The Race So Far: Previous groups haven’t seemed impressed by “Wicked” and “Dune: Part Two,” but other films have found champions: “Anora” won Best Film from LAFCA and the PGA, while “The Brutalist” won at NYFCC and took best drama at The Globes. (“Emilia Pérez” got their Best Musical/Comedy prize.) “Conclave” won both Best Film and Best British Film at BAFTA, as well as SAG’s ensemble award. Typically, Best Picture Oscar winners aren’t downbeat films like “The Brutalist,” but ones with an upbeat or progressive message. But which film best fits that description, “Conclave” or “Anora”?
Who Will Win: “Anora”
Who Should Win: “The Brutalist”
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